While the oil-rich disputed Abyei region between Sudan and South Sudan has remained relatively calm over the past few years, recent escalations may destabilise this fragile peace. Local leaders continue to advocate for peaceful coexistence amid mounting political and military manoeuvres in Khartoum and Juba.
The outbreak of war in Sudan in mid-April 2023 sparked new tensions in the region, local sources told Ayin, with an influx of armed actors, weapons, and displaced people entering Abyei. Last month, clashes erupted between the two main communities in Abyei - the Misseriya and the Ngok Dinka - resulting in the deaths of several people and the looting of property. The events led to a 14-day closure of the border that connects to the ostrich market, a critical trade area for local communities.
Cessation of hostilities
On 12 May, the civil administrations of the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya communities signed a peace agreement, obligating both parties to immediately cease hostilities, hand over perpetrators, pay blood money within 30 days, and compensate those affected. The reconciliation agreement was initiated by the civilian administration of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in West Kordofan State.
The chieftain of Abyei, Deng Kuol, told Ayin that the region witnessed a significant calm after the signing of the cessation of hostilities agreement. He stressed the importance of continuing discussions with the Misseriya chieftain, Mukhtar Babu Nimir, to promote peaceful coexistence in the region and prevent Abyei from sliding into violence. He also noted the reopening of shops, including the ostrich market, which is frequented by thousands of citizens from both Sudan and South Sudan.
A disputed territory
As a disputed region between Sudan and South Sudan, Abyei has always been prone to unrest, local residents told Ayin. The area's status has remained unresolved since South Sudan's 2011 independence. Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 had envisioned a joint referendum between the Ngok Dinka and Arab Misseriya tribes to determine the region's fate, yet the proposal never materialised. In 2009, the Permanent Court of Arbitration redrew Abyei's borders but left key oil fields under Sudan's control--further fuelling tensions.
Sudan's outbreak of war in mid-April has only exploited Abyei's insecurity further, says the head of the Abyei Dinka High Coordination Council, Chol Moin. "The area has become awash with arms as more gunmen enter," he added. Once Sudan's army retook the capital, Khartoum, RSF militants fled south and deployed in the Aman-Aguak and Mijak counties within Abyei. Prior to this, South Sudanese security forces were also stationed in the area south of Abyei to quell fighting between the Dinka Ngok and Twic Dinka communities.
Earlier this month, UN Secretary-General António Guterres confirmed this, citing an increased presence of South Sudanese security forces and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Abyei. He stated that the South Sudanese forces, consisting of at least 600 soldiers and police, remained deployed in southern Abyei, in violation of a 2011 agreement that maintains Abyei as a demilitarised zone.
The deployment of South Sudanese security forces in Abyei included the establishment of checkpoints. The UN mission requested, in two memoranda, that Juba withdraw its forces from the area. It also expressed concern over the deployment of the RSF and the resulting obstruction of the movement of civilians.
Increased arms
According to Kuol, the proliferation of weapons has made it impossible for Abyei's local authorities, including UN forces, to put an end to the unrest. "Rapid Support Forces are deployed in Abyei, some of whom carry weapons, which is problematic. At the same time, the civilian administration of the Rapid Support Forces in West Kordofan State occasionally visits Abyei to seek solutions to problems and promote peaceful coexistence in the region." Chief Kuol believes that the tensions in Abyei are primarily caused by the dispute in Sudan, where groups loyal to the national army are inciting local tensions in a bid to strike at the Rapid Support Forces.
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Moin says the UN peacekeeping force, United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNIFSA), lacks the mandate to engage in military confrontations with the armed groups that have infiltrated the area. In some cases, even the UN peacekeepers are not safe. On 28 February, RSF forces arrested 60 peacekeepers and looted a UNIFSA convoy transporting fuel.
Given these limitations, Moin says, Khartoum and Juba should play a more proactive role in establishing peace in Abyei. "We hold the governments of Sudan and South Sudan responsible for the tensions that are occurring, for their failure to implement the agreements related to the region and to establish administrative institutions capable of maintaining security."
